When I first started speculating on the idea of an Apple car last February as rumors about Project Titan emerged, I was enormously skeptical that it would ultimately happen. However in the days since Apple’s most recent media event where they announced the iPhone 6s, I’ve begun to rethink my assessment. I now see a way that might lead to Apple’s entry into the car business based on their latest approach to selling smartphones.
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Nine years ago, I was beginning my career as a professional writer just as a little Silicon Valley startup was emerging from stealth mode to introduce its first product. Taking its name from one of the greatest engineers and inventors of all time, Nicola Tesla, that company reignited the pursuit of battery electric vehicles with a heavily modified Lotus Elise chassis packed with 1,000-pounds of lithium ion cells. It would take another two years before paying customers would finally take delivery of the first Roadsters and another four after that before Tesla would finally deliver its first completely in-house developed product, the Model S. During a recent trip to California I finally got my chance to drive the insanely fast Tesla Model S P85D.
The car business is an enormously expensive place to play. Building factories can cost anywhere from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, especially if you want to mass produce anything. In late 2008 and early 2009 at the height of the financial crash, we saw General Motors go from $16 billion in cash reserves to virtually nothing in a matter of months as they raced toward bankruptcy. Tesla Motors is now standing on the precipice of major investments to grow the company and they have been spending their reserves at such a prodigious rate that they too need to raise more cash.
In the recently released Q2 2015 earnings report, a more troubling aspect than the operating losses which have been typical of the company’s finances from day one, was the cash burn rate. Tesla went from having $1.905 billion on December 31, 2014 to just $1.15 billion on June 30. A good chunk of this went to paying for equipment in the Fremont, California factory for production of the Model X crossover and ongoing construction of the “Gigafactory” battery plant near Reno, Nevada.
However, the outflow is just getting started as the company prepares to start equipping that $5 billion battery factory (although a significant chunk is coming from Panasonic and other suppliers) as well as developing and producing the more affordable Model III. Tesla has publicly stated a goal of expanding production from 50,000 units this year to 500,000 by 2020. While selling half a million cars would raise significant revenue, they have to spend a lot of money before they ever get there.
To help keep things going in the near term, Tesla announced plans today to issue $500 million worth of new common shares in the company. CEO Elon Musk has committed to spending $20 million of his own money to buy new shares. Given the enormous investments that will be required for equipment and engineering in the next five years, $500 million seems like a pittance and it likely won’t be the last time we see Tesla going to either the equity or debt markets to raise more money. In this case, Tesla’s stock price has already taken a hit in the last few weeks dropping from a high of $282 on July 20 to close at just over $238 yesterday. Right now they are probably balancing the need for cash with not overly diluting the stock and sending the price down even faster.
These are perilous times for Tesla Motors.
Last October, Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk stepped onstage in Los Angeles to announce the new P85D edition of the Model S and a new semi-autonomous driving feature called AutoPilot. Surprisingly, Musk told the audience that, starting two weeks prior to the event every Model S coming off the line was already equipped with the package of radar, camera and ultrasonic sensors that would enable AutoPilot. The engineers were still working on the software and it would debut in 2015. It’s now August 2015 and AutoPilot still hasn’t been turned on but the company’s second quarter earnings release did make an interesting mention of the new capability.
Back in January when Chevrolet first showed off the all-new second-generation Volt, we were told that the electric driving range would be at least 50 miles and the hybrid fuel economy would be about 41 mpg. This morning, they announced the official EPA certified results that would go on the fuel economy label and they beat those estimates. The larger 18.4-kWh battery and more efficient motors are now rated to provide a 53 driving range before the engine fires up. That’s a 40 percent bump from the 37 mile range on the 2015 model (the original 2011 was rated at just 35 miles) Once the battery is depleted (or when its really cold or if you’ve been running on electricity only for more than six weeks) the Volt is rated at 42 mpg combined. Unlike many cars in recent years, GM was always fairly conservative in rating the original Volt and it wasn’t at all unusual for many drivers to meet or exceed the 37 mile driving range on the label. Assuming that GM has done the same this time, most drivers should have little difficulty topping 50 miles but we’ll find out for ourselves in the not too distant future.
If the mainstream media in America talks about battery electric cars at all, it usually has something to do with the latest outrageous pronouncement from Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk. However, unless you live in the wealthy enclaves of Silicon Valley or southern California, chances are pretty good that you’ve never even seen a Tesla Model S much less driven one. Most of the rest of us will never be able to afford a Model S even we could find a place to buy one. For the rest of us that want to drive emissions-free there are a number of very good and increasingly affordable options including South Korea’s first entry into the segment, the Kia Soul EV.
Do you think they can achieve it?
General Motors (GM) recently hosted a Chevrolet Innovation Day event in Detroit in conjunction with the reveal of the all-new 2016 Chevrolet Cruze compact car. During the sessions attended by media…
In November 2008, I sat with a group of journalists on a hotel terrace in Beverly Hills to learn about BMW’s Project i which had the aim of a building a 21st century megacity car. In the middle of the terrace sat a fairly conventional-looking grey MINI hatchback that frankly didn’t look all that advanced. However, the lessons learned from that car and the other 500 examples just like it, led directly to the BMW’s first true, next-generation automobile, the i3.
However, the long-term survival of the company may well depend more on pivoting into being an energy storage company rather than an automaker.
For the 2016 model year, +Cadillac is giving the +Chevrolet Volt-based extended range EV coupe some updates and $9,000 price cut that will hopefully spur some sales. Despite it's stunning looks, the excessively high price and so-so performance of the ELR have severely hampered sales. A revised sport mode enables more of a hybrid style of control with the engine and electric drive to provide more power and cut the 0-60 time by 1.5 seconds to 6.4 seconds.
Ever since the the Volt launched in late 2010 followed a few years later by the ELR, the powertrain control has consisted of four modes. When the battery has sufficient charge, the car runs electrically using either one or both motors depending on the speed. Once the battery runs down, at speeds up to about 70 mph, the engine would start up to maintain the battery charge while the main electric motor provided drive. At higher speeds, some torque from the engine would also be blended in along with the second motor. This whole setup provided greater efficiency at high speeds.
The sport mode now enables that blended driving control at lower speeds for more aggressive acceleration. We'll see if this is enough to spur sales until the ELR is discontinued entirely.
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