Don't expect a battery revolution any time soon
Reshared post from +Green Car Reports
It's going to take about ten years for next-generation electric-car batteries to come according to the DoE.
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New-Generation Electric-Car Batteries Will Take 10 Years, DoE Lab Says
There's kind of a running joke within the electric car world that the next generation of batteries is just a decade away. And the next time you ask, it's still a decade away. Even a decade later. Well…
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But incremental improvements in battery cell manufacturing yields, packaging, etc., could still mean that we get a doubling in performance every 4 or so years, even without some magic new chemistry that arrives only every 10-15 years at best.
+Anton Wahlman maybe but I wouldn't count on doubling performance every 4 years. We haven't seen that kind of improvement in the past decade and if you look at other lithium battery applications, the improvements usually come from more efficient use of the available energy.
While processors and other electronics have reduced power consumption, the nature of the motor vehicle means we won't see that kind of increase in efficiency. The best we can realistically hope for is reduced manufacturing cost.
In the last 4 or so years, the price of batteries have already gone down from $1,000 or more per kWh to $500 or below. Tesla thinks they will be close to $200 within the next 3-4 years. I think this is a yield/scale issue for the near term. Big factories in China, financed by the Russians, will alone ensure we get to $200 or below in the next 3-4 years. Don't underestimate scale/yield impact on cost when you're starting off on a very small (relatively speaking) base. The Chevy Spark, due one year from now, should also be a good price point milestone for the industry.