vehicle fleet had hit 10.8 years, the oldest ever. That's bad news for plug-in vehicles.
The fleet has been getting steadily older for a number of reasons. First vehicles today are more durable than ever so they just plain last longer. Bodies are less susceptible to rust and with proper maintenance, it's not hard for engines to run 200,000 miles or more. That's means there is no need to dispose of a perfectly useful car or truck.
The second and more insidious reason is the economy. For the past two decades, real incomes for all but the very wealthy have been either stagnant or declining. That means it's harder for most middle and lower income people to actually buy a new car. Up until 2008, automakers got around this by using subsidized lease programs. The increased durability and reliability of cars meant their value at the end of a lease was higher and they brought in more dollars when re-sold.
Following the financial collapse, increased unemployment, tighter credit, more expensive gas, higher prices on new vehicles and other factors have made it nearly impossible for sales to climb back toward their peak of just a few years ago. Thankfully, that same improved durability and reliability has made it easier for many people to keep their existing cars on the road longer, especially after their loans are paid off.
An aging fleet is actually a multi-edged sword. For consumers it means that buying a new car is something that can more easily be put off for a time. For automakers, it means it's harder to grow sales and employ more workers. For the environment and fuel efficiency, it means older less efficient vehicles stay on the road longer before being retired while at the same time avoiding the life-cycle energy costs of manufacturing, delivering and disposal.
All of this also means that it it going to be extremely difficult for plug-in vehicles to gain any traction in the market place soon. The cost of batteries remains stubbornly high while energy capacity remains low. With less need to replace vehicles and less financial wherewithal to do so, I don't see electric vehicles getting beyond a small niche in the market any time soon.
#cars #automobile #EVs #electricvehicles
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Average age of U.S. light vehicles reaches record high, Polk says
DETROIT — The average age of light vehicles on U.S. roads keeps rising, reaching a record high of 10.8 years in 2011, according to an analysis released today by automotive research firm Polk. Polk…
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If the demand for plug-in cars becomes significant, the #1 constraint would be production capacity anyway. Gearing up for battery manufacturing capacity isn't done by snapping a couple of fingers, whether overnight or over a few months. For it to become 10% of the market, lots of lithium has to be processed… I think 130,000 plug-in cars will be sold in the U.S. in 2012, or no more than 1% of the market.
If the demand for plug-in cars becomes significant, the #1 constraint would be production capacity anyway. Gearing up for battery manufacturing capacity isn't done by snapping a couple of fingers, whether overnight or over a few months. For it to become 10% of the market, lots of lithium has to be processed… I think 130,000 plug-in cars will be sold in the U.S. in 2012, or no more than 1% of the market.
Frankly, I'd be shocked if half that number of plug-ins were sold in the US this year. Quite a bit of lithium battery capacity is coming online this year, but I suspect most of it will go into non-plug hybrids for some time to come.
Frankly, I'd be shocked if half that number of plug-ins were sold in the US this year. Quite a bit of lithium battery capacity is coming online this year, but I suspect most of it will go into non-plug hybrids for some time to come.
So in other words, you're betting on it being much fewer than 65,000 in the U.S. in 2012. Hmmm. I'll take that bet. Add the models, line by line. And how many in 2013?
So in other words, you're betting on it being much fewer than 65,000 in the U.S. in 2012. Hmmm. I'll take that bet. Add the models, line by line. And how many in 2013?
+Anton Wahlman My rough guess is that US sales will pan out something like this:
Nissan Leaf – 20,000
Chevy Volt – 20,000
Fisker Karma – 5,000
Toyota Prius PHEV – 10,000
Mitsubishi i – 2,000
Tesla Model S – 5,000
Ford Focus Electric – <1,000
Ford C-Max Energi – <1,000
Ford Fusion Energi – <1,000
I could of course be very, very wrong about these numbers, but considering the lackluster economy and where the price points of these vehicles are compared to non-plug-in equivalents, I have to remain skeptical.
Hmmm. I'd be curious to see your 2013 projections. I suspect you're low on Volts, though not gonna hazard a guess about how much.
+John Voelcker you could well be right about Volt volumes. If my projection is low, I'm not sure how much if any impact it will have on the vehicles on the list. Volt could well also be affected by potential bad publicity from the congressional hearings that were announced today although I hope not. For the most part my guesses about plug-in volumes are based more on economics (both the economy as a whole and the price tags) than the true merits of the vehicles in question.
If congress kills the $7,500 tax credit, the problem only gets worse.
With the Federal government borrowing 40% of everything it spends, I'm guessing that the 16 kWh+ $7,500 tax credit won't be long-lived beyond 2012. I published my own 2012 estimate two weeks ago: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11366016/1/600-growth-industry-electric-cars.html
Basically, here are the numbers I estimate:
Volt 45,000
Leaf 25,000
Tesla 6,000
Fisker 5,000
Focus 7,000
RAV4 4,000
Prius 12,000
C-Max 18,000
Smart & Mitsubishi: 8,000
= TOTAL 130,000
+Anton Wahlman I'll be honest. While my projections may be conservative I yours are way optimistic in several cases
Sam: I think you may be right, that the verdict as 2012 draws to a close will end up residing somewhere between our estimates. We shall see. In the meantime, I published this article this morning on the subject of defining the four major categories of electric cars. I think you will find it interesting: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11379041/1/the-four-kinds-of-plug-in-cars.html