Way back in January we had some discussion here https://plus.google.com/u/0/114133424228405038490/posts/gsqgiPQqsdM about how many plug-in vehicles would be sold in the US in 2012. +Anton Wahlman was projecting sales of about 130,000 units. My estimates were considerably more conservative at no more than half that number.
So far with 11 months down, the tally stands at just 43,193 not including the Fisker Karma and Tesla Model S (they don't report sales) and if the November number carries over, we'd be at about 55,000 for the year.
While my total was closer than the Anton's, my distribution was a bit off. Here's what I called in January.
Nissan Leaf – 20,000
Chevy Volt – 20,000
Fisker Karma – 5,000
Toyota Prius PHEV – 10,000
Mitsubishi i – 2,000
Tesla Model S – 5,000
Ford Focus Electric – <1,000
Ford C-Max Energi – <1,000
Ford Fusion Energi – <1,000
As of November 30, the totals stand at
Nissan Leaf – 8,330
Chevy Volt – 20,828
Fisker Karma – 1,500 (est)
Toyota Prius PHEV – 11,389
Toyota Rav4 EV – 140
Mitsubishi i – 511
Tesla Model S – 1,500 (est)
Ford Focus Electric – <518
Ford C-Max Energi – <1,403
Ford Fusion Energi – 0 (this one isn't coming until January '13)
Honda Fit EV – 74
It turns out that sales of the Nissan Leaf, Mitsubishi i, Fisker and Tesla were all significantly lower than I expected. The Volt, Prius and C-Max Energi have all done a bit better than projected.
I'm guessing 2013 will probably finally top 100,000 and probably fall somewhere short of 150,000 with the addition of the Chevy Spark EV, a less expensive, longer range Leaf, availability of the Fusion and Honda Accord PHEV, and a full year of the Model S and C-Max Energi. I suspect Fisker will be hard pressed to match this year's total with the problems at battery supplier A123.
The plug-in market will remain a niche for some time to come.
November alt-fuel sales stay solid with higher Ford C-Max, Nissan Leaf demand
November’s US alternative-fuel vehicle sales remained steady relative to recent months as strong sales for Ford’s C-Max hybrids and the all-electric
This post has been reshared 1 times on Google+
View this post on Google+
Post imported by Google+Blog for WordPress.
A niche, but an ever-growing one. The plug-in is here to stay. Also why did you tally your predictions up now instead of waiting until next month?
Electric cars are only shifting some of your environmental burden onto others. You are using more electricity from carbon based sources and creating more batteries for land fills. They are not an answer to any problem, simply another problem. We need a true, alternative source of power beside electric or electric/carbon based source.
+Dean Montague While EVs do shift some of the environmental burden around, electric powertrains are far more efficient than internal combustion engines. With solar/wind/geothermal/wave you have true alternatives and batteries can be recycled/reused for other purposes after they are no longer useful in cars. All that said, batteries remain expensive with poor energy density which will limit their appeal for some time to come.